پیش‌بینی پتانسیل باد و ارزیابی نتایج در نواحی کوهستانی (مطالعه موردی: استان کرمانشاه)

نوع مقاله: مقاله تحقیقی‌ (پژوهشی‌)

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه سید جمال‌الدین اسدآبادی، همدان، ایران

2 دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در این پژوهش، پتانسیل باد در محدوده چند ایستگاه همدیدی استان کرمانشاه برآورد شد که در نزدیکی آنها ایستگاه­های بادسنجی سانا تأسیس شده بود. با مقایسه ویژگی­های باد مشاهده­شده در ایستگاه­های بادسنجی سانا و ویژگی­های برآورد­شده در محل این ایستگاه­ها، دقت برآوردها ارزیابی شده است. برای برآورد ویژگی­های باد، اطلس باد در هر ایستگاه با به‌کارگیری نرم‌افزار WAsP آماده و نقشه­های میانگین سرعت باد و چگالی توان باد در ارتفاع­های 10، 40 و 80 متری از سطح زمین با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای WAsP و ArcGIS در محدوده مشخصی از هر ایستگاه تهیه شد. سپس ویژگی­های باد مشاهده­شده در ایستگاه‌­های بادسنجی سانا با ویژگی­های برآورد­شده در محل این ایستگاه­ها (پارامترهایی مثل میانگین سرعت باد، میانگین چگالی توان باد، محتمل‌ترین سرعت باد و سرعت باد بیشینه تولید انرژی) مقایسه و دقت برآوردها ارزیابی شد. 
به‌استثنای ایستگاه ماهیدشت، نتایج قابل­قبولی در سه ایستگاه دیگر، به‌ویژه با توجه به ناهمواری پیچیده منطقه به‌دست‌آمده است. تفاوت زیاد ویژگی­های باد در ایستگاه ماهیدشت نیز به‌دلیل فاصله زیاد این ایستگاه از ایستگاه اسلام‌آباد غرب در منطقه‌ای با ناهمواری پیچیده است. همچنین نتایج در ارتفاع 80 متری از سطح زمین در ایستگاه سونقور چندان رضایت‌بخش نبود. به‌عبارت‌دیگر، ناهمواری پیچیده منطقه باعث کاهش دقت برآورد نیم‌رخ باد با قانون لگاریتمی ورتمن ‌شده است. نتایج آزمون T برای نمونه­های زوج­شده نشان داد در سطح اطمینان 95/0، تفاوت معنی‌داری به لحاظ آماری بین مقادیر مشاهده­شده و برآورد­شده وجود ندارد؛ بنابراین از مدل خطی ارائه­شده در نرم‌افزار WAsP می­توان برای پیش‌بینی ویژگی­های باد در فواصل به‌نسبت نزدیک به ایستگاه اندازه‌گیری در مناطق کوهستانی بهره برد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction of wind potential and assessment of accuracy in mountainous areas (Case study: Kermanshah province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Somayeh Rafati 1
  • Mostafa Karimi 2
1 Sayyed Jamaleddin Asadabadi University, Hamedan, Iran
2 Geography depaartment, Tehran university, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The harvesting of renewable energy sources has become increasingly important to take account of the gradual decline of fossil fuel reserves and the environment degradation associated with the use of fossil fuels. Wind energy, as one of the most well-known renewable energy sources, has been extensively harnessed across the world (Shu et al., 2015). Utilization of energy from wind has gained appreciable momentum and is being widely disseminated for displacement of oil-produced energy, and eventually to reduce the catastrophic effects of fossil fuel energy on environment (Shaahid et al., 2014). Using of wind energy depends on precise prediction of wind properties in areas with no measurement; thus, this paper aimed to evaluate wind potential predictions presented by WAsP software in mountainous areas such as Kermanshah province.
In this study, wind potential was estimated around four synoptic stations where there are SANA wind stations and then predicted and observed wind properties were compared for evaluation of accuracy. Wind data of synoptic stations in Sarpolzahab, Sonqor, Eslamabad, and Kermanshah was used for prediction of wind properties in SANA stations in Kerend, Sounqour, Mahidasht, and Hajiabad sites, respectively. The measurements were used in 40 m AGL (for all cases) and 80 m AGL (for Kerend and Sounqour sites). Using WAsP and ArcGIS software, wind atlas and then mean wind speed and mean wind power density maps were prepared in 10, 40 and 80 m AGL and a relatively limited area (15 to 35 km long) around each station. Then, using measurements in SANA stations and parameters such as mean wind speed, mean wind power density, most probable and maximum energy-carrying wind speed, the accuracy of estimates was assessed.
The results showed that predicted wind properties were acceptable in Kerend, Hajiabad and Sounqour at 40 m AGL, but they were somewhat different in Mahidasht which is due to the long distance in complex terrain. As well, estimates were not so good at 80 m AGL in Sounqour. In other words, the log law of Wortman was not able to predict wind properties precisely at high height in complex terrain. However, paired sample T test result revealed there is no significant difference between predicted and observed values.
Wind potential assessment showed that highlands and ridge mountains (with more than 2000 m height) are areas with high wind power density (>700 W/m2). Mean wind speed in lower regions was calculated 4 to 6 m/s and wind power density was calculated 100 to 300 W/m2 around Kermanshah, Eslamabad and Sonqor stations. The calculated wind speed and wind power density for Sarpolzahab area were 2 to 4 m/s and less than 200 W/m2, respectively. These values in this area are lower than other stations.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • wind potential prediction
  • wind atlas
  • mean wind power density
  • WAsP software
  • Kermanshah province

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