Iranian Journal of Geophysics

Iranian Journal of Geophysics

Interannual linkage between Arctic sea ice cover and atmospheric circulation in winters: a new cause and effect approach

Document Type : Research Article

Authors
Morteza Moosavizadeh 1
Farhang Ahmadi-Givi 2
Omid Alizadeh 3
1 Ph.D. Student, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Space Physics Department, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Space Physics Department, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Geography Departmnent, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
10.30499/ijg.2024.478329.1635
Abstract
In this study, we employ three cause-and-effect approaches on an interannual time scale to investigate the complex interplay between Arctic sea ice cover (SIC) and atmospheric circulation on an interannual time scale. We employed these three approaches on the ERA5 data for winters from 1979 to 2023 and examined the linkage between SIC and surface turbulent heat flux (STHF). We focused on three regions with high winter SIC variability: the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS), the Chukchi-Bering Seas (CBS), and the Baffin-Davis-Labrador Seas (BDL). We introduced an improved classification method by combining two approaches: (1) winters are classified into ice-driven and atmosphere-driven regimes based on the signs of STHF and SIC anomalies; (2) winters are classified into shallow and deep warming/cooling regimes. Based on this new approach, we classified winters into four regimes: (1) ice-driven winters with shallow warming/cooling; (2) ice-driven winters with deep warming/cooling; (3) atmosphere-driven winters with shallow warming/cooling; and (4) atmosphere-driven winters with deep warming/cooling. We then analyzed the relationship between the standardized sea ice index in each regime with STHF, storm track density, and the mean intensity of positive meridional wind at 850 hPa (V850).
    Our results indicate that the effect of atmospheric circulation on SIC in atmosphere-driven winters varies depending on the depth of warming/cooling over regions with SIC variability. Specifically, in the BKS and CBS regions, downward anomalies in STHF in the south of the region with a reduction in the SIC area and the storm-induced intrusion of warm and moist air into the Arctic are more pronounced in atmosphere-driven winters with deep warming compared to those with shallow warming. We argue that in the BKS region, atmosphere-driven winters with deep warming/cooling are most representative of winters when the atmosphere is driving the SIC. For the CBS region, however, atmosphere-driven winters should be analyzed separately under deep and shallow warming/cooling regimes. For the BKS region, ice-driven winters can exhibit either deep or shallow warming/cooling regimes. Therefore, not all winters with deep warming/cooling represent periods when the atmosphere controls SIC. Hence, to investigate the influence of SIC variability on atmospheric circulation in the BKS region, it is more insightful to separately examine ice-driven winters with shallow and deep warming/cooling. In contrast in the CBS region, ice-driven winters are strongly linked to shallow warming/cooling. This refined classification can be applied to model outputs to enhance our understanding of the intricate interactions between winter sea ice variability and atmospheric circulation across different Arctic regions.
Keywords
Arctic sea ice, Arctic warming, Barents-Kara Seas, atmospheric circulation, storm tracks

Subjects

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Iranian Journal of Geophysics
Volume 19, Issue 5
November and December 2025
Pages 17-36