مجله ژئوفیزیک ایران

مجله ژئوفیزیک ایران

Insights from the 2017 and 2020 Mw ~5 earthquakes around Tehran: Assessing seismicity and physical and social vulnerability

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی‌

نویسندگان
Mohammadreza Jamalreyhani 1
Afshar Hatami 2
MirAli Hassanzadeh 3
Pınar Büyükakpinar 4
Ramin Movaghari 1
1 Ph.D., Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
2 Ph.D., University of Kharazmi, Tehran, Iran
3 Ph.D., Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Department of Earth Sciences, Zanjan, Iran
4 Associate Professor, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, German, Potsdam
10.30499/ijg.2024.445644.1579
چکیده
Tehran is one of the most earthquake-prone cities globally. This vast urban center, with a population exceeding 10 million, is intersected by several active faults, presenting significant seismic hazards. The occurrence of two Mw ~5 earthquakes in December 2017 near Malard and May 2020 near Damavand, further underscores the urgent need for comprehensive studies in the capital of Iran. his analysis primarily focuses on the 2017 and 2020 seismic events and their causative faults. Additionally, we highlight the limitations of Tehran's seismic monitoring and active faults map by addressing examples of unidentified seismic unrest and faults. By tackling the significant challenges of seismic studies and evaluating the preparedness of people and cities for a major earthquake, we draw insights from recent earthquakes around Tehran. Results show that the Malard and Damavand earthquakes occurred on the previously unknown and Mosha faults, respectively. Sparse seismic stations limit route detection thresholds and location accuracy of seismicity near Tehran. In addition, we show that the dispersion of population and distressed fabrics in Tehran is clustered, and the vulnerability to earthquakes is linked to both physical and social factors. This study holds immense importance in enhancing seismological research and risk reduction strategies for the Tehran province.
 
کلیدواژه‌ها
Earthquakes in Tehran
seismic monitoring
Mallard
Damavand
risk reduction
physical and social vulnerability

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Insights from the 2017 and 2020 Mw ~5 earthquakes around Tehran: Assessing seismicity and physical and social vulnerability

نویسندگان English

Mohammadreza Jamalreyhani 1
Afshar Hatami 2
MirAli Hassanzadeh 3
Pınar Büyükakpinar 4
Ramin Movaghari 1
1 Ph.D., Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
2 Ph.D., University of Kharazmi, Tehran, Iran
3 Ph.D., Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Department of Earth Sciences, Zanjan, Iran
4 Associate Professor, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, German, Potsdam
چکیده English

Tehran is one of the most earthquake-prone cities globally. This vast urban center, with a population exceeding 10 million, is intersected by several active faults, presenting significant seismic hazards. The occurrence of two Mw ~5 earthquakes in December 2017 near Malard and May 2020 near Damavand, further underscores the urgent need for comprehensive studies in the capital of Iran. his analysis primarily focuses on the 2017 and 2020 seismic events and their causative faults. Additionally, we highlight the limitations of Tehran's seismic monitoring and active faults map by addressing examples of unidentified seismic unrest and faults. By tackling the significant challenges of seismic studies and evaluating the preparedness of people and cities for a major earthquake, we draw insights from recent earthquakes around Tehran. Results show that the Malard and Damavand earthquakes occurred on the previously unknown and Mosha faults, respectively. Sparse seismic stations limit route detection thresholds and location accuracy of seismicity near Tehran. In addition, we show that the dispersion of population and distressed fabrics in Tehran is clustered, and the vulnerability to earthquakes is linked to both physical and social factors. This study holds immense importance in enhancing seismological research and risk reduction strategies for the Tehran province.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Earthquakes in Tehran
seismic monitoring
Mallard
Damavand
risk reduction
physical and social vulnerability
Abbassi M, Farbod Y (2009). Faulting and folding in quaternary deposits of Tehran’s piedmont (Iran). Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 34(4), 522-531. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.08.001.
Ajorlou N, Hollingsworth J, Mousavi Z, Ghods A, Masoumi Z (2021). Characterizing near‐field surface deformation in the 1990 Rudbar earthquake (Iran) using optical image correlation. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 22(6), e2021GC009704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GC009704.
Aktuğ B, Özener H, Doğru A, Sabuncu A, Turgut B, Halıcıoğlu K. and Yılmaz O (2016). Slip rates and seismic potential on the East Anatolian Fault System using an improved GPS velocity field. Journal of Geodynamics, 94–95, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2016.01.001.
Allen M, Ghassemi M, Shahrabi M, Qorashi M (2003). Accommodation of late Cenozoic oblique shortening in the Alborz range, northern Iran. Journal of Structural Geology, 25(5), 659-672. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-8141(02)00064-0.
Ambraseys N. N, Melville C. P (2005). A history of Persian earthquakes: Cambridge university press. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.4290110412.
Amini E, Habib F, Mojtahedzadeh G. H (2010). Land Use Planning and its effects on reduced city vulnerability Against Earthquake. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 12(3), 161-174.
Ashtari M, Hatzfeld D, Kamalian N (2005). Microseismicity in the region of Tehran. Tectonophysics, 395(3-4), 193-208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2004.09.011.
Assereto R (1966). Geological Map of Upper Djadjerud and Lar Valleys Central Elburz, Iran.
Azad S. S, Ritz J.-F, Abbassi M. R (2011). Left-lateral active deformation along the Mosha–North Tehran fault system (Iran): Morphotectonics and paleoseismological investigations. Tectonophysics, 497(1-4), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2010.09.013.
Azghandi, M., Abbassi, M.R., Javan Doloei, G., Sadidkhouy, A. (2023). Fault-kinematic and stress state investigation using focal mechanism solution along the Mosha fault, Alborz Mountain: implication for changing stress tectonic regime. Iranian Journal of Geophysics, 16(4), 165-174. DOI: https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.20080336.1401.16.4.12.5
Bachmanov D, Trifonov V, Hessami K. T, Kozhurin A, Ivanova T, Rogozhin E, Jamali F (2004). Active faults in the Zagros and central Iran. Tectonophysics, 380(3-4), 221-241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2003.09.02.
Baftipour M, Jarahi H, Polat G, Seifilaleh S (2022). Damavand Earthquake of 2020 the Mainshock or an Alarm for Disaster for the Capital of Iran. AJEAS 15, 51–58. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajeassp.2022.51.58.
Barbot S, Luo H, Wang T, Hamiel Y, Piatibratova O, Muhammad T, Gurbuz G (2023). Slip distribution of the February 6, 2023 Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6, Kahramanmaraş, Turkey earthquake sequence in the East Anatolian fault zone. Seismica, 3(2). https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v2i3.502.
Ben‐Zion Y, Beroza G. C, Bohnhoff M, Gabriel A. A, Mai P. M (2022). A grand challenge international infrastructure for earthquake science. Seismological Research Letters, 93 (6): 2967–2968.. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220266.
Berberian M, Yeats R. S (1999). Patterns of historical earthquake rupture in the Iranian Plateau. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 89(1), 120-139. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0890010120.
Berberian M , Yeats R.S (2016). Tehran: An earthquake time bomb. , in Sorkhabi, R, ed, Tectonic Evolution, Collision, and Seismicity of Southwest Asia: In Honor of Manuel Berberian’s Forty-Five Years of Research Contributions: Geological Society of America Special Paper 525, p. 87–170. https://doi.org/10.1130/2016.2525(04).
Bletery Q,  Nocquet J.-M (2023). The precursory phase of large earthquakes. Science, 381(6655), 297-301. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adg2565.
Bouchon M, Karabulut H, Aktar M, et al., 2011. Extended nucleation of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Izmit earthquake. Science 331, 877-880. DOI: 10.1126/science.119734.
Büyükakpınar P, Jamalreyhani M, Rezapour M, et al (2021). Rupture process of the 7 May 2020 Mw 5.0 Tehran earthquake and its relation with the Damavand stratovolcano, and Mosha Fault. Paper presented at the EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1759.
Ciborowski A (1982). Physical development planning and urban design in earthquake-prone areas. Engineering Structures, 4(3), 153-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/0141-0296(82)90003-7.
Dal Zilio L, Ampuero J. Earthquake doublet in Turkey and Syria. Commun Earth Environ. 2023; 4: 71. In. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00747-z.
Dallo I, Herrmann M, Supino M, Bayona J. A, Khawaja A. M, Scaini C (2023). The need for open, transdisciplinary, and ethical science in seismology. Seismica, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v2i2.470.
Enferadi S, Shomali Z. H,  Niksejel A (2021). Feasibility study of earthquake early warning in Tehran, Iran. Journal of Seismology, 25(4), 1127-1140. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-021-10014-3.
Farajpour Z, Zare M, Pezeshk S, Ansari A,  Farzanegan E (2018). Near-source strong motion database catalog for Iran. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3413-x.
Ghassemi M. R, Fattahi M, Landgraf A, Ahmadi M, Ballato P, Tabatabaei S. H (2014). Kinematic links between the eastern Mosha fault and the North Tehran fault, Alborz range, northern Iran. Tectonophysics, 622, 81-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2014.03.007.
Hajibabaee M, Amini-Hosseini K,  Ghayamghamian M (2014). Earthquake risk assessment in urban fabrics based on physical, socioeconomic and response capacity parameters (a case study: Tehran city). Natural hazards, 74, 2229-2250. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1300-7.
Heimann S, Isken M, Kühn D et al (2018). Grond: A probabilistic earthquake source inversion framework. https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.1.2018.003.
Heimann S, Kriegerowski M, Isken M et al (2017). Pyrocko-An open-source seismology toolbox and library. https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.1.2017.001.
Heimann S, Vasyura-Bathke H, Sudhaus H, Isken M. P, Kriegerowski M, Steinberg A, Dahm T (2019). A Python framework for efficient use of pre-computed Green's functions in seismological and other physical forward and inverse source problems. Solid Earth, 10(6), 1921-1935. https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1921-2019.
Hassanzadeh, M. A., Jamalreyhani, M., Arvin, S., & VahidRavesh, S. (2024). The link between gas extraction and shallow seismicity around the Dalan gas field of Zagros Mountains, Iran. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 355, 107246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2024.107246
Hessami K, Jamali F, Tabassi H, (2003). Major Active Faults of Iran, Map, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran, scale 1:2,500,000.
Hessami K. Tabassi H. Abbassi M.R. Azuma T. Okumura K. Echigo T. Kondo H., 2004. Surface expression of the Bam Fault Zone in Southeastern Iran: Causative Fault of the 26 December 2003 Bam Earthquake, Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, 4, 5–14.
Hetényi G, Subedi S (2023). A Call to Action for a Comprehensive Earthquake Education Policy in Nepal. Seismica, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v2i2.242.
Hosseini H, Pakzad M, Naserieh S (2019). Iranian regional centroid moment tensor catalog: Solutions for 2012–2017. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 286, 29-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2018.11.001.
Ide, S. (2019). Frequent observations of identical onsets of large and small earthquakes. Nature 573, 112–116. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1508-5
Jackson J, Priestley K, Allen M,Berberian M (2002). Active tectonics of the south Caspian basin. Geophysical Journal International, 148(2), 214-245. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2002.01588.x.
Jaiswal K,  Wald D (2010). An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation. Earthquake Spectra, 26(4), 1017-1037. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.3480331.
Jamalreyhani M, Pousse‐Beltran L, Büyükakpınar P et al (2021). The 2019–2020 Khalili (Iran) Earthquake Sequence—Anthropogenic Seismicity in the Zagros Simply Folded Belt? Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126(12), e2021JB022797. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB022797.
Jamalreyhani M, Rezapour M, Cesca S, Dahm T, Heimann S, Sudhaus H, Isken M. P (2022). Insight into the 2017–2019 Lurestan arc seismic sequence (Zagros, Iran); complex earthquake interaction in the basement and sediments. Geophysical Journal International, 230(1), 114-130. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac057.
JICA, C (2000). The study on seismic microzoning of the Greater Tehran Area in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Pacific Consultants International Report, OYO Cooperation, Japan, 291-390.
Kalantari M, Firuzi E, Ahmadipour M, Sorooshian S (2023). Estimating annualized earthquake loss for residential buildings in Tehran, Iran. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 21(4), 2259-2280. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01604-8.
Kamranzad F, Memarian H, Zare M (2020). Earthquake risk assessment for Tehran, Iran. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 9(7), 430. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9070430.
Karasözen E, Buyukakpinar P, Ertuncay D, Havazlı E, Oral E (2023). A call from early‑career Turkish scientists: seismic resilience is only feasible with “earthquake culture”. Seismica, 2(3). https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v2i3.1012.
Karasözen E., Nissen E., Bergman E.A., Ghods A (2019). Seismotectonics of the Zagros (Iran) From Orogen-Wide, Calibrated Earthquake Relocations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 124, 9109–9129. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB017336.
Khorrami F, Vernant P, Masson F, Nilfouroushan F et al (2019). An up-to-date crustal deformation map of Iran using integrated campaign-mode and permanent GPS velocities. Geophysical Journal International, 217(2), 832-843. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggz045.
Kumari M, Sarma K, Sharma R (2019). Using Moran's I and GIS to study the spatial pattern of land surface temperature in relation to land use/cover around a thermal power plant in Singrauli district, Madhya Pradesh, India. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 15, 100239. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2019.100239.
Lacassin R, Devès M, Hicks S. P et al (2019). Rapid collaborative knowledge building via Twitter after significant geohazard events. Geoscience Communication Discussions, 2019, 1-23. https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-129-2020.
Mileti D. S, Cress D. M, Darlington J. D (2002). Earthquake culture and corporate action. Paper presented at the Sociological Forum. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1014549708645.
Mileti D. S,  Darlington J. D (1997). The role of searching in shaping reactions to earthquake risk information. Social Problems, 44(1), 89-103. https://doi.org/10.2307/3096875.
Momeni S, Madariaga R (2022). Long-term triggered seismicity on the Mosha fault by Damavand volcano, Iran: Implications on the seismic hazard of Tehran metropolis. Frontiers in Earth Science, 10, 945297. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.945297.
Mousavi, S.M., Beroza, G.C., (2023). Machine Learning in Earthquake Seismology. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 51, 105–129. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-071822-100323
Movaghari, R., and Javan Doloei, G. (2018). Upper Crustal Structure of South West of Tehran Using Borehole Ambient Noise Tomography. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 44(2), 281-295. DOI: https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.2538371.1397.44.2.2.4
Nazari H, Ritz J.-F, Salamati R et al (2009). Morphological and palaeoseismological analysis along the Taleghan fault (Central Alborz, Iran). Geophysical Journal International, 178(2), 1028-1041. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04173.x.
Nazeri S, Shomali Z. H (2019). Rapid estimation of the epicentral distance in the earthquake early warning system around the Tehran region, Iran. Seismological Research Letters, 90(5), 1916-1922. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180375.
Niazpour, B., Shomali, Z. H. (2024). Moderate earthquakes striking Tehran metropolitan area: A case study of 2017 Malard and 2020 Damavand seismic sequences. Journal of Seismology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-023-10187-z
Naserieh, S., Pakzad, M., Ghofrani, H., Dezvareh, M., Karkooti, E., Moradi, A., & Shahvar, M. (2023). Recognition of the causative fault of the 2017 MW 4.9 Malard (Tehran, Iran) earthquake from directivity analysis of the recorded ground motions. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 345, 107116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2023.107116
Oki T, Osaragi T (2017). Urban improvement policies for reducing human damage in a large earthquake by using wide-area evacuation simulation incorporating rescue and firefighting by local residents. Planning Support Science for Smarter Urban Futures 15, 449-468. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57819-4_25.
Pedrami M (1981). Pasadenian orogeny and geology of last 700,000 years of Iran. Geological Survey of Iranin.
Priestley K, Baker C, Jackson J (1994). Implications of earthquake focal mechanism data for the active tectonics of the South Caspian Basin and surrounding regions. Geophysical Journal International, 118(1), 111-141. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1994.tb04679.x.
Rashed T, Weeks J (2003). Assessing vulnerability to earthquake hazards through spatial multicriteria analysis of urban areas. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 17(6), 547-576. https://doi.org/10.1080/1365881031000114071.
Ritz J.-F, Nazari H, Ghassemi A, Salamati R, Shafei A, Solaymani S, Vernant P (2006). Active transtension inside central Alborz: A new insight into northern Iran–southern Caspian geodynamics. Geology, 34(6), 477-480. https://doi.org/10.1130/G22319.1.
Ross Z. E, Trugman D. T, Hauksson E, Shearer P. M (2019). Searching for hidden earthquakes in Southern California. Science, 364(6442), 767-771. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw6888.
Shabanian, E., & Hassanzadeh, M. A. (2022). Summary report on Quaternary/active faults in Tehran. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/384793110_Summary_report_on_Quaternaryactive_faults_in_Tehran
Shirzad T, Naghavi M, Afra M, YaminiFard F (2019). Three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure of Tehran from local micro-earthquake tomography. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 176, 4783-4796. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02269-2.
SoltaniMoghadam S, Tatar M, Komeazi A (2019). An improved 1-D crustal velocity model for the Central Alborz (Iran) using Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 292, 87-99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2019.05.009.
Toomey, A., (2016). What happens at the gap between knowledge and practice? Spaces of encounter and misencounter between environmental scientists and local people. Ecology and Society 21. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08409-210228
Tchalenko J (1975). Seismotectonic framework of the North Tehran fault. Tectonophysics, 29(1-4), 411-420. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(75)90169-9.
Trifonov V, Hessami K, Jamali F (1996). West-Trending Oblique Sinitral—Reverse Fault system in Northern Iran: IIEES Special Publication 75. Tehran, Iran.
Vajedian S, Motagh M, Nilfouroushan F (2015). StaMPS improvement for deformation analysis in mountainous regions: Implications for the Damavand volcano and Mosha fault in Alborz. Remote Sensing, 7(7), 8323-8347.
Wang, X., Feng, X., Xu, X. et al. (2014). Fault plane parameters of Sanhe-Pinggu M8 earthquake in 1679 determined using present-day small earthquakes. Earthq Sci 27, 607–614. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-014-0099-3
Wetzler N, Lay T, Brodsky E. E (2023). Global Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks for Large Earthquakes. Seismological Research Letters, 94(5), 2313-2325. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220397.
Yaghmaei-Sabegh S, Kun J, Qadri S. T (2023). Characteristics of records obtained at the 14 November 2021 Fin doublet events, Southern of Iran. Natural hazards, 117(1), 579-596. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05873-7.
Yaghoob Nejad Asl N (2018). Vulnerability Assessment Caused by the Earthquake in Tehran and Surrounding Area. Disaster Prevention and Management Knowledge (quarterly), 8(1), 16-26.
Zare M (2020). Damavand quake: A trigger of risk panic in Tehran. Journal of Disaster and Emergency Research. https://doi.org/10.18502/jder.v3i2.3641.
مجله ژئوفیزیک ایران
دوره 18، شماره 6
بهمن و اسفند 1403
صفحه 111-128