مجله ژئوفیزیک ایران

مجله ژئوفیزیک ایران

تغییرات چرخه برف در نیمکره شمالی: تحلیل چندمدلی سناریوهای گرمایش زمین و مهندسی اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی‌

نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی علوم پایه زنجان، زنجان، ایران
2 دانشیار، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی علوم پایه، زنجان، ایران
چکیده
گرمایش جهانی، چرخه‌ی برف در سطح کره زمین را به‌طور چشمگیری دگرگون کرده‌ است؛ کاهش پوشش برف، ذوب زودهنگام و ناپایداری در زمان‌بندی فصلی، تهدیدی جدی برای منابع آب، امنیت غذایی و پایداری اکوسیستم‌ها محسوب می‌شود. در این راستا، مهندسی اقلیم و به‌ویژه روش تزریق هواویزها در پوشن‌سپهر (stratospheric aerosol injection)، الگوبرداری شده از آتشفشان‌های بزرگ، به‌عنوان راهکاری مکمل، برای کاهش دمای سطح مطرح شده است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تأثیر سناریوی مهندسی اقلیم G6sulfur بر متغیرهای کلیدی چرخه‌ی برف سطحی شامل مقدار برف سطحی، شار ذوب، درصد پوشش و عمق برف، از خروجی شش مدل اقلیمی جهانی CESM2-WACCM، CNRM-ESM2-1، IPSL-CM6A-LR، MPI-ESM1-2-HR، MPI-ESM1-2-LR و UKESM1-0-LL تحت سناریوی انتشار شدید گازهای گلخانه‌ای SSP5-8.5 با و بدون اعمال مهندسی اقلیم از طریق سناریوی G6sulfur، بهره گرفته است. آنالیزها تحت سناریوهای آینده (2070-2099) با شرایط دوره‌ی پایه (۲۰۱۵۲۰۳۴) مقایسه شدهاند. نتایج نشان داد که در سناریوی SSP5-8.5، متغیرهای برفی با کاهش معناداری مواجه شدند؛ به‌طور متوسط مقدار برف سطحی تا حدود 25%، شار ذوب برف تا ۱4%، درصد پوشش برف تا ۲۷% و عمق برف تا 50% کاهش یافته است. همچنین تحت سناریوی گرمایش اقلیم، زمان وقوع اوج برف و ذوب برف بین ۱ تا ۲ ماه زودتر نسبت به دوره پایه رخ خواهد داد. در مقابل، مهندسی اقلیم توانسته است که این روندها را بصورت نسبی تعدیل کند؛ بطوریکه کاهش مقدار برف سطحی به حدود 11%، شار ذوب برف به 10%، درصد پوشش برف به ۱2% و عمق برف به 19% محدود گردید و همچنین جابه‌جایی زمانی اوج‌ها نیز به کمتر از نیم‌ماه کاهش یافت. این یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که مهندسی اقلیم می‌تواند بخشی از اثرات منفی گرمایش جهانی بر چرخه‌ی برف را بطور موثری جبران کند. با این حال، مداخلات اقلیمی نمی‌توانند تمامی تغییرات هیدرولوژیکی را به‌طور کامل معکوس سازند و گرمایش باقیمانده و پویایی ذوب برف همچنان نقشی کلیدی در رواناب عرض‌های میانی تا بالا ایفا می‌کنند. بنابراین مهندسی اقلیم میتواند به عنوان یک روش مکمل تغییرات رخ داده در چرخه هیدرولوژی ناشی از گرمایش اقلیم را بصورت نسبی به شرایط دوره پایه نزدیک گرداند، اما نمی‌تواند جایگزین راهبردهای اصلی کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Changes in the snow cycle in the northern hemisphere: a multimodel analysis of global warming scenarios and climate engineering

نویسندگان English

Shirin Ajabi 1
Abolfazl Rezaei 2
1 M.Sc., Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Zanjan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Zanjan, Iran
چکیده English

Global warming has profoundly altered the global snow cycle, causing widespread reductions in snow cover, earlier snowmelt, and instability in seasonal timing. These transformations pose serious threats to water resources, food security, and ecosystem sustainability. In response, climate engineering particularly stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which mimics the cooling effects of large volcanic eruptions has been proposed as a potential complementary strategy to mitigate surface warming. This study evaluates the influence of the G6sulfur climate engineering scenario on key snow cycle variables, including surface snow mass, snowmelt flux, snow cover fraction, and snow depth. We analyzed outputs from six global climate models (CESM2-WACCM, CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, and UKESM1-0-LL) under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, both with and without the G6sulfur intervention. Future projections (2070–2099) were compared against baseline conditions (2015–2034). Under SSP5-8.5, snow variables exhibited significant declines: surface snow mass decreased by approximately 25%, snowmelt flux by 14%, snow cover fraction by 27%, and snow depth by 50%. Additionally, the timing of peak snow accumulation and melt shifted 1–2 months earlier relative to the baseline period. In contrast, the G6sulfur scenario substantially moderated these trends: snow mass loss was limited to ~11%, snowmelt flux to ~10%, snow cover decline to ~12%, and snow depth reduction to ~19%, while the temporal shift in peak occurrence was reduced to less than half a month. These findings demonstrate that climate engineering can effectively offset a portion of the adverse impacts of global warming on the snow cycle. However, climate interventions cannot fully reverse all hydrological changes, as residual warming and snowmelt dynamics continue to play a critical role in runoff generation at mid-to-high latitudes. Therefore, while SAI may serve as an effective complementary tool to partially restore hydrological conditions toward baseline levels, it cannot replace the primary strategy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Snow cycle
climate geoengineering
global warming
climate Models
stratospheric aerosol injection
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دوره 20، شماره 4
مرداد و شهریور 1405
صفحه 181-200

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