امکان‌سنجی پیش‌بینی وقوع سیل با استفاده از داده‌های گرانشی‌ ماهواره‌ای GRACE در حوضه آبریز رود کارون

نوع مقاله : مقاله تحقیقی‌ (پژوهشی‌)

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی نقشه ‌برداری گرایش ژئودزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 استاد، دانشکده مهندسی نقشه ‌برداری و اطلاعات مکانی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار، دانشکده مهندسی معدن دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

سیل یکی از وقایع طبیعی است که خسارت‌های جانی، مالی و زیست‌محیطی فراوانی بر جای می‌گذارد. بررسی وضعیت ذخیره آب زمینی (TWS) در حوضه‌های آبریز برای کاهش تأثیرات این خسارت‌ها از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار است. TWS عبارت است از مجموع تمام ذخایر آب‌های زیر و روی سطح زمین. این آب‌ها شاملِ آب‌های سطحی، رطوبت خاک، آب‌های زیرزمینی، برف، یخ و آب‌های موجود در گیاهان است. در این مطالعه با استفاده از داده‌های آنومالی ذخیره آب زمینی ( (TWSAحاصل از داده‌های جفت‌ماهواره GRACE ظرفیت ذخیره‌سازی حوضه آبریز محاسبه شد سپس با استفاده از آن و همچنین داده‌های بارش ماهانه که از داده‌های پروژه جهانی اقلیم بارندگی (GPCP) به‌دست‌آمده‌است، شاخص پتانسیل سیل (FPI) برای پتانسیل وقوع سیل محاسبه و از آن برای ارزیابی پتانسیل وقوع سیل استفاده شد. هرچه مقدار FPI به عدد یک نزدیک‌تر باشد، احتمال وقوع سیل، بیشتر افزایش می‌یابد. با توجه به سیلاب‌های رخ داده در فروردین ماه 1398، نتایج این شاخص در حوضه آبریز رود کارون در بازه زمانی ماه اکتبر 2018 تا ماه اوت 2019 بررسی شده است. مقادیر FPI در ماه مارس (21/0FPI=) و آوریل (42/0FPI=) نشان‌دهنده وقوع سیل در این ماه‌ها است. همچنین در برخی موارد ممکن است FPI افزایش پیدا کند و به‌اشتباه سیل تشخیص داده شود. همچنان که در بازه زمانی مورد بررسی، FPI در ماه‌های مه (68/0FPI=) و ژوئن (27/0FPI=) مثبت بوده اما سیلی رخ نداده است؛ بنابراین به‌طور قطعی نمی‌توان اظهار کرد که این شاخص به‌تنهایی می‌تواند سیل‌ را پیش‌بینی کند و به اطلاعات مکمل با استفاده از منابع و روش‌های دیگر برای پایش و پیش‌بینی دقیق‌تر سیلاب‌ها نیاز است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Feasibility study of forecasting the flood occurrence using GRACE satellite gravity data in the Karun river basin, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Rahim Rezvani Faezifar 1
  • Abdolreza Safari 2
  • Abbas Bahroudi 3
  • Sabah Ramouz 1
1 M.Sc. Graduate, College of Engineering School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, College of Engineering School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, College of Engineering / School of Mining Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Flood is one of the natural disasters which leaves behind many humans, financial and ecosystem losses. Consideration of situations and conditions in the basins has a high priority in reducing the effects of these losses. Study and research on Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) point out the capacity of water storage in a basin and consider its potential for occurring possible floods. TWS is defined as the summation of all water stored above and below on the earth’s surface (e.g., lakes, rivers, soil moisture, snow, ice and waters inside the vegetation). In this study, using Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) data attained from twin GRACE satellites and using monthly precipitation data acquired from Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the capacity of water storage in basin and the Flood Potential Index (FPI) are calculated. FPI is defined as a storage capacity quantity of basin and has been utilizing in assessing the potential of flood occurrence. The more FPI is near to 1.0, the more possibility of flood event will be. Regarding previous flood events happened during March 2019 in Iran, FPI values related to Karun basin within interval of October 2018 and August 2019 are considered specially. FPI values of 0.21 in March and 0.42 in April show flood events in March and April (2019), respectively. Based on the proposed method, rising value of FPI causes more potential for occurring a flood event. On the contrary, falling value of FPI makes flood events less likely. Concerning results point out higher positive values of FPI connected to more precipitations and in reverse, lower values of FPI related to lower precipitations. Therefore, using study of FPI during desired time interval and regarding the increasing of its index value, forecasting the flood event is possible even several months before its happening and prevents the possible losses. However, temporary and small-scaled floods are not recognized by GRACE data and FPI is less effective. By the way, in some cases it is possible that FPI increases and causes a wrong flood forecasting. For example, in our case study within specific time intervals in May (FPI = 0.68) and June (FPI = 0.27) the FPI values are positive, while there has not occurred any flood. Therefore, definitely, this index is not merely capable of flood forecasting and it is necessary to use supplementary information utilizing other sources and methods to forecast it more precisely.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • flood
  • Forecasting
  • Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly
  • Grace
  • Flood Potential Index
  • Karun Basin
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