کنون‌بینی آغازش همرفت با استفاده از داده‌های ماهواره‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی‌

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری هواشناسی، گروه فیزیک فضا، موسسه ژئوفیزیک دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه فیزیک فضا، موسسه ژئوفیزیک، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

پیش­بینی دقیق و به‌موقع پدیده‌های همرفتی به‌عنوان یک چالش در مراکز عملیاتی پیش­بینی وضع‌هوا محسوب می‌شود. با توجه به این‌که این پدیده‌ها در بیشتر موارد، به‌طور دقیق توسط مدل‌های عددی با پیکربندی مر‌سوم قابل پیش‌بینی نیستند، کنون‌بینی آنها با استفاده از داده‌های ماهواره‌ای از اهمیت شایانی برخوردار است. در این بین ماهواره‌های زمین‌ایستا به‌عنوان ابزار بسیار کارآمد برای شناسایی مناطق مستعد آغازش پدیده‌های همرفتی شناخته شده‌اند.
    در این مقاله تلاش شده است تا با استفاده از داده‌های ماهواره زمین‌ایستای Meteosat8، الگوریتمی ارائه شود تا مناطق مستعد آغازش همرفت از نظر زمان و محل تشکیل، شناسایی و در جهت تقویت و بهبود صدور هشدارهای بهنگام، به‌صورت خیلی کوتاه‌‌مدت پیش‌بینی شود. این‌کار با مطالعه بر روی رویدادهای همرفتی رخ داده در ساعات روز و شب فصل‌های بهار و تابستان سال 1397 در محدوده استان تهران انجام شده است. الگوریتم حاضر بر اساس انتخاب 22 میدان با استفاده از دمای درخشندگی باندهای فروسرخ، بازتاب باندهای مرئی و نزدیک به فروسرخ، همراه با تفاضل و روند تغییرات 15 و 30 دقیقه‌ای آنها انجام شده است. این میدان‌ها بیانگر آهنگ رشد، شدت فراهنج‌ها و ضخامت نوری ابرها همراه با ارتفاع، فاز و شعاع موثر قطرک‌های قله آنها هستند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که با به‌کارگیری این الگوریتم، درصد احتمال تشخیص و درصد پیش‌بینی‌های صحیح به‌ترتیب برابر 62 و 79 درصد بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Nowcasting of convection initiation using satellite data

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolghasem Ghazanfari Lakeh 1
  • Sarmad Ghader 2
  • Majid Mazraeh Farahani 2
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Physics Space, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Physics Space, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Convective storms are the most atmospheric hazards that can cause significant dangers to sectors such as agriculture, industry, aviation industry and urban and rural facilities in different parts of the world. These storms are often accompanied by thunderstorms, hails, floods or severe winds. Severe dust from some convective phenomena has also been identified as air and environmental pollutant. Therefore, studing their various aspects has provided the basis for many atmospheric studies in different parts of the world.
    Accurate and timely forecasting of convective storms is still challenging in operational weather forecasting centers. Given that conventionally configured numerical models did not accurately predict this phenomenon in most cases, their nowcasting using satellite data is of great importance. Meanwhile, geostationary satellites have been recognized as a useful tool for identifying areas with potential convection.
    In this paper, an attempt is made to provide an algorithm using the Meteosat8 data to identify areas prone to the convection initiation and to improve the issuance of timely warnings in a very short time. This work has been done by studying the convective events during the day and night hours of spring and summer of 1397 in Tehran province. The present algorithm is based on  selecting 22 fields using the brightness temperature of infrared channels, the reflectance of visible and near-infrared channels and the differences and their 15 and 30 minute trends. The preprocessing performed on the satellite data are radiometric and geometric corrections. To do this, after calculating the radiance of individual channels from the digital counts, the brightness temperature of the infrared and reflectance of the visible and near infrared channels are calculated. Also to calculate the trend of the fields between two time steps, a spatial low-pass filter using the box-averaging method has been used.
    Large-Scale atmospheric pattern analysis of the ten strongest dust convective storm events in Tehran in the last decade shows that in most of them, at least five days before the storm, a ridge of geopotential height at the 500 hPa level developed on the area. On the day of the storm, the passage of the geopotential trough and the cold front of the surface destroyed the atmospheric stability and released the energy necessary for the development of the cumulonimbus cloud and the occurrence of the storm. Finally results show that using this algorithm to nowcasting the convective initiation, the probability of detection and correct alarm rate are 62 and 79 percent, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Nowcasting
  • convective dust storm
  • convection initiation
  • satellite data
  • probability of detection

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مجله ژئوفیزیک ایران
دوره 16، شماره 3
آذر 1401
صفحه 1-22

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